Tag: stats

Is Jiu Jitsu Growth Flat?

As a digital marketing professional, I spend a ton of time on analytics. I evaluate trends and data to determine how well a campaign, website, piece of media, etc. might perform given the current conditions. I’m also always on the look out for the next technology or subject that will innovate the marketplace.
In doing this, I spend a lot of time looking at product or subject growth. One of the best indicators I have found for this is Google Trends. It’s a very basic tool, and available to everyone. Almost all savvy digital marketing experts use it, because it gives you a very good idea of a subject or topics popularity, and where it’s headed in the future.

Advanced metrics

During a recently product development project, we started looking at advanced metrics to evaluate the timeline for popularity of cloud software inside the manufacturing industry. Simple enough, there were a suite of proprietary tools we used to do this. At the end of the project I kept find myself asking. I wonder what jiu jitsu growth would look like if I was to run it through these same filters?
The results surprised me. Based on all of indicators, and confirmed by Google Trends, is the evidence that suggests that jiu jitsu’s growth is relatively flat. This can’t be so, right? According to social, digital, and popularity data records it is.

Not growing at all?

Jiu Jitsu really hasn’t seen a dramatic rise in popularity in the last 10 years. Although tournaments and organization may have improved, the influx of popularity and new growth simply doesn’t seem to be there. It makes sense too. When someone starts jiu jitsu, they may do it for the rest of their life, or they may quit tomorrow, who knows. Over time there will certainly be more practitioners, but that doesn’t really mean that growth is increasing. Jiu Jitsu’s growth is relatively steady.
Based on subjects of similar scope, it is my opinion that this is likely going to remain fixed. Given all of the cultural and technical innovations that have occurred over the last 10 years, jiu jitsu’s growth rate has held very flat. That leads me to believe it is likely to remain this way.

So what does that say about jiu jitsu long term?

It’s unlikely that we see some grand explosion in popularity soon. That would require a spike, and based on the environment of the last 10 years, it’s hard to imagine something significant coming along and changing that. That’s not to say that the jiu jitsu population may grow; leading to greater innovation of services, tournaments, and practitioners, but it’s unlikely to see the mainstream jiu jitsu growth that many are clamoring for.

Tags brazilian jiu jitsu, gracie jiu jitsu, grappling, ibjjf, jiu jitsu, jiu jitsu growth, jiu jitsu market, jiu jitsu products, jiu jitsu trends, stats

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It's Science: Mackenzie Dern

Post author By tylerb
Post date April 14, 2015
2 Comments on It's Science: Mackenzie Dern

It’s Science: Mackenzie Dern

Full study (including all the stats and info from the study) will be available in the next issue of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine
Notable Study Stats:

+53% submission percentage (73% in wins)
38% of submissions were footlocks
Scored first in 8/11 wins
Winning percentage of 72%
42% of sweeps occurred from spider guard
Standing passes accounted for 50% of passes
Average match length was only 4:48 minutes
Had a 14/11 “sweep/pass ratio”

Abstract:
All matches observed of Mackenzie Dern, used in this small sample occurred at IBJJF events, inside her weight division, and in the years 2013-2015. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.
The Breakdown:
Given some of the recent uproar created by Metamoris front man, Ralek Gracie, I decided it was a perfect time to release our first competitor study of a female athlete. While there are certainly a long list of qualified females to choose from. You would be hard pressed to find a more popular and more aggressive female competitor on the scene today. Dern has quickly burst in to the black belt division after a storied career at the lower belt levels. She has yet to win a black belt world title, but has collected several at lower belt levels. So what has made Mackenzie so successful?
Mackenzie boasts a very well-rounded game. When you look at her chart you quickly see that there is a lot of versatility in what see does. She finds way to win in multiple ways. However, there are several things she does exceptionally well. Her aggressive style lends itself very well to submissions. She has one of our highest submissions rates currently recorded in these studies (above 53%). Her submission of choice was the foot lock; which accounted for 38% of her total submissions. She collected more leg locks than any other competitors that we have studied.
This aggressiveness also leads her to scoring first in 72% of her winning matches. This also has exposed her to some risk. Her winning percentage in the study was similarly around 73%. Nevertheless, she makes matches exciting. Her average match length was only 4:48! One of the shortest average match lengths we’ve ever recorded.
Mackenzie’s game did largely revolve around her guard game in the study; which she would often use to sweep her opponents from spider guard. This spider guard also led to several triangle and armbar submissions. Once on top, Mackenzie used several classic Grace Humaita style techniques to pass; consisting of knee over and knee through styles of passes; although the leg drag was largely incorporated as well. Perhaps, this is something she has gleaned from fiancé Augusto Mendes? Either way, her sweep to pass ratio was 14/10 (sweep/pass). This was a very strong balance that led to a wide variety of submissions with footlocks making up the majority.
Ultimately, the talking point that inspired this initial female study has proven to be largely incorrect. In fact, Mackenzie may turn this idea of women not being exciting on its head. She boasts one of the highest submission percentages that we’ve recorded and has an average match length much lower than we’ve seen so far. While women remain a minority in the jiu jitsu population, the rise of young fierce competitors like Mackenzie should continue to inspire more women to get involved and newer jiu jitsu enthusiasts to pay more attention to the exciting action occurring in the womens black belt divisions.

Tags bjj, jiu jitsu, mackenzie dern, stats

"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Lucas Lepri

Post author By tylerb
Post date February 8, 2015
No Comments on It's Science: Lucas Lepri

It’s Science: Lucas Lepri

Our latest edition of It’s Science features Lucas Lepri. The full article will be published in the next edition of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine. To see all the awesome graphics and full-data model be sure to subscribe or pick up the next issue. See all previous issues for past subjects.
Notable Study Stats:

64% of his passes occurred from Half guard

87% win percentage
54% Submission percentage in wins
Scored first in 12 of 13 recorded wins in study
2^nd highest pass per match rate ever recorded (1.13)
His average match length was 7 minutes and 31 seconds
43% of his submissions were chokes from the back
30% of passes were knee through passes
Took his opponents back in 46% of wins

Abstract: All matches observed of Lucas Lepri, used in this small sample occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2011-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.
The Breakdown: Lucas Lepri is one of the most accomplished grapplers still active today. A multi-time world champion, Lepri has proven himself a staple of consistency over the years. What’s even more impressive is Lepri’s dynamic ability to win tournaments using a wide-variety of strategy’s. In 2014, the world saw Lepri demonstrate his takedown and passing prowess to perfection as Lepri toke down and passed the guard of JT Torres in the world finals. In the past, it has often been Lepri’s stellar guard work and submission propensity that has earned him the world champion moniker. Ultimately, studying Lepri is a treat; as his abilities and skills are so consistent and precise that you immediately understand why he has been so successful to this point.
The Study: When you consider the top guard passers in the game today, a Lepri’s name is often brought up. Our study found that this is most definitely based in reality. Lepri averaged 1.13 passes per match, the second highest we’ve ever recorded (#1 was Gui Mendes). Approximately 64% of his passes occurred from top half guard with the vast majority of his passing finishes being of the knee through variety. This allowed Lepri to often setup one of his dynamic submissions which was the baseball bat choke (also a Gui Mendes favorite). This submission accounted for roughly 15% of his total submissions.
Speaking of submissions, Lepri had a submission rate in matches that he won of 54%. On top of that, his total winning percentage was 87%. Lepri preferred to finish his opponents from the back; as 43% of his submission victories were chokes from the back. Lepri often used his dynamic passing abilities to setup the back take. Half of his bake takes occurred from this type of scenario. Lepri often baits his opponents into defending the guard pass so dramatically that they dictate their backs to him. Lepri makes a living capitalizing on opponent mistakes.
One of the most impressive elements of lepri’s style is his ability to win almost every matchup (i.e. playing bottom or top – in various scenarios). Lepri’s guard game is surgical. He is not as specialized as former subjects like Rafa Mendes or Cobrinha, but he is equally mathematical in his setups and execution. His top sweeping position was sit-up guard (43%), and his top sweep type was a tomonagi style sweep. Lepri is the first subject we’ve studied with a tomonagi as his highest percentage sweep.
Ultimately, Lepri may be the most well rounded competitor we have studied to date. Not just technically, but in his complete application of jiu jitsu in a tournament setting. Lepri has demonstrated the ability to win matches in a variety of ways; top, bottom, by points, by submission, etc. He is a rare model of consistency and excellence that doesn’t show any tangible signs of slowing down any time soon.

"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Keenan Cornelius

Post author By tylerb
Post date October 13, 2014
No Comments on It's Science: Keenan Cornelius

Abstract: All matches observed of Keenan Cornelius, used in this small sample, occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2013-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.
The Breakdown:
There may not be a more powerful figure that has entered the BJJ competition scene in the last 10 years than Keenan Cornelius. Cornelius gained significant attention several years ago when he achieved the self-titled – now famed – accomplishment of weight class and absolute “grand slam”; a series of tournament wins in the largest events of the year. Since this accomplishment, Keenan’s stock has been on the rise.
With that in mind, Keenan’s time at black belt has been both short and dense. Cornelius has missed very few major IBJJF events; giving us a phenomenal sample to study. Contrary to just about every one of our previous study subjects, Cornelius has a very diverse portfolio of techniques that he utilizes in competition. We generally see the winningest competitors use a very short list of techniques in competition; however, Cornelius has been able to muster a winning percentage of 73% using a much more complex strategy.
In addition to a strong winning percentage, we see a positive submission percentage in our data of Cornelius as well. Keenan finished his opponents in approximately 55% of his matches, and his average match length was 7 minutes and 48 seconds – both statistics that match-up almost identically with the data we have on Rodolfo Vieira and Guilherme Mendes. What’s most interesting about all this is the difference in which Cornelius achieves these results.
To continue reading the rest of this article, please check out the November issue of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine

"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Gianni Grippo

Post author By tylerb
Post date August 19, 2014
1 Comment on It's Science: Gianni Grippo

Full Article In The Next Issue Of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine

Notable Study Stats:
• 100% of passes were of a leg drag variety
• No sweeps or passes occurred from half-guard
• Won 80% of his matches
• Submitted his opponent in 50% of wins
• Scored first in every match he won
• His average match length was 8 minutes
• 75% of sweeps came from De La Riva or Reverse De La Riva

Abstract: All matches observed of Gianni Grippo, used in this small sample, occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2012-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches online – selected using a random generator from 20 total total IBJJF matches that occurred in in the study timeline. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.

The Breakdown: Gianni Grippo is the youngest competitor we have ever studied. In fact, he has been a black belt competitor for only 1 year so far. It’s a credit to his diligence as a competitor that there is actually a large enough sample to conduct a breakdown. With that in mind, Gianni already displays the characteristic we tend to see in all of our top-competitor breakdowns. Grippo has an incredibly defined tournament strategy and gameplan. This leads to a high winning percentage (80%), and a strong submission percentage (50%).

Gianni is well known for his De La Riva and reverse De La Riva guard game. It’s easy to see why this happens to be the case. This is the foundation that Grippo’s primary strategy is built around. 75% of all of his sweeps that we recorded occurred from DLR or RDLR guard, and he uses these sweeps and attacks to setup his passing and submission techniques. In fact, you could argue that the broadest approach Grippo takes is from the guard. In our study Grippo used 4 different sweeping positions and 4 different sweep-types to attack his opponent from the bottom. As the game further unfolds, Grippo becomes more and more defined in his approach. The only type of pass we recorded Gianni executing in the study was a leg drag pass. What’s more, this leg drag passing strategy led to two separate roads to the back. These roads included a back take from the pass it self, or a back take from an attempted escape once he was able to establish side-control.

Grippo’s submission game was even more defined. The only submission we recorded during the study were chokes from the back. It becomes clear upon reflection that Gianni Grippo has become an expert in walking each of his opponents into a very familiar fate. He has one of the most defined strategies of any competitor we’ve studied; and it all starts from the DLR or RDLR guard.

Taking everything into account, it is obvious that Grippo’s end-game involves the back, and he reverse engineers it from his strongest and most diversified position, open guard. The only downside to having such a defined game is that it paints a very clear picture to opponents as to what your comfort zone is. However, Gianni has seemed to understand this. Recently, in a post on his brand new blog, GianniGrippo.com, ….

Read the rest of this article in the next issue of Jiu Jitsu Style