We watch a lot of film at BishopBjj.com. In fact, whilst studying the 2012 World Championships for our study, we watched over 200 matches in a 2 week period of time. That certainly doesn’t make us experts, but it does make our opinions a little bit more informed than the average guy. Based on our knowledge, here are Tyler’s adult male picks for the 2013 Pan Jiu Jitsu Championship.
Rooster: It’s hard to envision a scenario in which Caio Terra and Bruno Malfacine don’t meet in the finals. With Bruno coming off of injury Caio is the popular choice, but if Bruno has been able to maintain his physical abilities it is hard to see him losing
Light-Feather: Let’s be honest, with only 11 guys in the division it looks as though Gui Mendes will probably clean up. His only recent loss is to Bruno – who moved down again to rooster again this year – so I predict an easy road for Gui Mendes.
Feather: This is such a tough weight class that likely comes down to the big 4 – Tanquinho, Cobrinha, Mario Reis, and Rafael Mendes. Mendes will be tough to beat, and there is strong chance he will meet Tanquinho or Cobrinha in the finals.
Light: This weight class is full of talent, and with the exit of Leandro Lo, the field is wide open. The door is open for JT Torres to finally nab his title, but it’s likely that the current going-on’s of his former team have affected his training, so it’s probably safer to go with one of the boys from Alliannce (Lucas Lepri, or Micheal Langhi)
Close out – Langhi and Lepri
Middle: Possibly the toughest of weight classes, it is truly up for grabs. Leandro Lo will give everyone in the division a tough time, and suspect he makes it into the finals. However; Kayron Gracie always seems to come out of nowhere for at least one event a year.
Middle-Heavy: This is going to be Galvao and Barral’s division to lose. I expect an epic rematch in the finals
Heavy: No Rodolfo, no problem. Expect a war in the division.
Super-Heavy: Unfortunately, we’ve seen this before. It’s hard to imagine anyone in this division dethroning Faria or Nogueira.
Close out Faria and Nogueira
Ultra-Heavy: Buchecha is certainly the favorite, but don’t sleep on Orlando Sanchez. Sanchez looked hard to beat in Chicago earlier this year. Also, athletes like Alexander Trans and Gustavo Dias will not make it easy for the young Checkmat competitor.
In honor of the largest jiu jitsu tournament in the word, the Pan Ams, we’ve decided to start our preview with a look at the past. The video above highlights some of the best moments and most fierce action from the past years Pan Ams.
Speaking of the past, BishopBjj.com specializes in evaluating and measuring past jiu jitsu activities. The 2012 Pan Ams was our first large scale study on jiu jitsu ever conducted. We continued that effort at the 2012 World Championships, and will keep it moving this year with our evaluation of the 2013 Pan this week. This is very exciting – as it will mark the first time in history that we can evaluate real trends in jiu jitsu empirically. For some, this could not be more boring, so below we have done our best to make it interesting.
Last year, we observed that nearly 80% of adult black belt matches resulted in the first person to score being the winner. I suspect this will not change much this year. This was a trend that was largely intact at the 2012 Worlds as well. However, as tactics, positions, and strategies change there is no telling what effect this could have on the scoring paradigm. What do you think, are first points going to be just as valuable this year as they were last year?
Is guard pulling here to stay? Well obviously there will always be guard pullers, but at black belt adult last year nearly 70% of competitors pulled guard. Will this trend continue in 2013? My belief is that the trend will begin to swing back in another direction this year as advanced guard games have been studied more and new techniques have been developed, but it is hard to predict. The other question is if it continues will it remain a successful strategy? Last year the money was on guard pullers. They won nearly 60% of their matches. The only more successful strategy is taking the opponent down, which resulted in a victory rate of almost 73% (note: they also score first, so it’s kind of a double-whammy). Also, will we see this trend expand into the larger weight classes like we started to see in the worlds study last year, or will the big guys continue to fight for the top position? these will all be very interesting questions to answer
Finally, who’s going to win, and who’s going to steal the show? Last year Rafael Mendes stole the show by defeating Cobrinha with a nasty armlock, and Bruno Malficine prevented the lighter Mendes brother, Guilherme, from joining his brother atop the podium. Who will be this years standouts? It’s extremely likely that someone from the young crop of fresh black belts is able to surprise several veterans this year, but it’s hard to tell who will be the one to step up. What are your thoughts?
We will see you there, and will be providing daily media updates (including fresh footage), so stay tuned and keep checking the site everyday!!!