Is Jiu Jitsu Growth Flat?

As a digital marketing professional, I spend a ton of time on analytics. I evaluate trends and data to determine how well a campaign, website, piece of media, etc. might perform given the current conditions. I’m also always on the look out for the next technology or subject that will innovate the marketplace.
In doing this, I spend a lot of time looking at product or subject growth. One of the best indicators I have found for this is Google Trends. It’s a very basic tool, and available to everyone. Almost all savvy digital marketing experts use it, because it gives you a very good idea of a subject or topics popularity, and where it’s headed in the future.

Advanced metrics

During a recently product development project, we started looking at advanced metrics to evaluate the timeline for popularity of cloud software inside the manufacturing industry. Simple enough, there were a suite of proprietary tools we used to do this. At the end of the project I kept find myself asking. I wonder what jiu jitsu growth would look like if I was to run it through these same filters?
The results surprised me. Based on all of indicators, and confirmed by Google Trends, is the evidence that suggests that jiu jitsu’s growth is relatively flat. This can’t be so, right? According to social, digital, and popularity data records it is.

Not growing at all?

Jiu Jitsu really hasn’t seen a dramatic rise in popularity in the last 10 years. Although tournaments and organization may have improved, the influx of popularity and new growth simply doesn’t seem to be there. It makes sense too. When someone starts jiu jitsu, they may do it for the rest of their life, or they may quit tomorrow, who knows. Over time there will certainly be more practitioners, but that doesn’t really mean that growth is increasing. Jiu Jitsu’s growth is relatively steady.
Based on subjects of similar scope, it is my opinion that this is likely going to remain fixed. Given all of the cultural and technical innovations that have occurred over the last 10 years, jiu jitsu’s growth rate has held very flat. That leads me to believe it is likely to remain this way.

So what does that say about jiu jitsu long term?

It’s unlikely that we see some grand explosion in popularity soon. That would require a spike, and based on the environment of the last 10 years, it’s hard to imagine something significant coming along and changing that. That’s not to say that the jiu jitsu population may grow; leading to greater innovation of services, tournaments, and practitioners, but it’s unlikely to see the mainstream jiu jitsu growth that many are clamoring for.