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BishopBjj News

Return of Science of Jiu jitsu Podcast – #18

jiu jitsu podcast

Return of Science of Jiu Jitsu Podcast – #18


Tyler, Jena, Jon, and Phil are back and better than ever… well… we’re just back talking crazy rumors, stuff on the forums, and throwing wild accusations and criticisms at respected members of the community. Join us!
You can listen to the latest Science of Jiu Jitsu podcast below, or you can check out the cast of Stitcher. Do us a huge favor, and rate the show on Stitcher. Help us reach more people so we can bring the podcast back full steam.
Listen to the podcast by clicking here to download, or use the player below.

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Show summary

  • Introduction
  • We talk about the long layoff and our hopes for the future
  • We talk about stuff on R/BJJ and the UG
  • We discuss the upcoming Five Grappling invitational
  • We talk about what Metamoris is doing
  • We get way off track for a while and talk about weird stuff
  • Phil tells stories
  • Jon sucks
  • Things get weird again
  • We discuss crazy unfounded rumors
  • Phil makes accusations
  • The show abruptly ends…

We’re happy to be back, and are always working to make the show better. Leave comments below to recommend guests, subjects, and future topics.


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BishopBjj News

Is Jiu Jitsu Growth Flat?

Is Jiu Jitsu Growth Flat?

jiu jitsu growth

As a digital marketing professional, I spend a ton of time on analytics. I evaluate trends and data to determine how well a campaign, website, piece of media, etc. might perform given the current conditions. I’m also always on the look out for the next technology or subject that will innovate the marketplace.
In doing this, I spend a lot of time looking at product or subject growth. One of the best indicators I have found for this is Google Trends. It’s a very basic tool, and available to everyone. Almost all savvy digital marketing experts use it, because it gives you a very good idea of a subject or topics popularity, and where it’s headed in the future.

Advanced metrics

During a recently product development project, we started looking at advanced metrics to evaluate the timeline for popularity of cloud software inside the manufacturing industry. Simple enough, there were a suite of proprietary tools we used to do this. At the end of the project I kept find myself asking. I wonder what jiu jitsu growth would look like if I was to run it through these same filters?
The results surprised me. Based on all of indicators, and confirmed by Google Trends, is the evidence that suggests that jiu jitsu’s growth is relatively flat. This can’t be so, right? According to social, digital, and popularity data records it is.

Not growing at all?

Jiu Jitsu really hasn’t seen a dramatic rise in popularity in the last 10 years. Although tournaments and organization may have improved, the influx of popularity and new growth simply doesn’t seem to be there. It makes sense too. When someone starts jiu jitsu, they may do it for the rest of their life, or they may quit tomorrow, who knows. Over time there will certainly be more practitioners, but that doesn’t really mean that growth is increasing. Jiu Jitsu’s growth is relatively steady.
Based on subjects of similar scope, it is my opinion that this is likely going to remain fixed. Given all of the cultural and technical innovations that have occurred over the last 10 years, jiu jitsu’s growth rate has held very flat. That leads me to believe it is likely to remain this way.
social trends

So what does that say about jiu jitsu long term?

It’s unlikely that we see some grand explosion in popularity soon. That would require a spike, and based on the environment of the last 10 years, it’s hard to imagine something significant coming along and changing that. That’s not to say that the jiu jitsu population may grow; leading to greater innovation of services, tournaments, and practitioners, but it’s unlikely to see the mainstream jiu jitsu growth that many are clamoring for.


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"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Keenan Cornelius

keenan cornelius stat pic
Abstract: All matches observed of Keenan Cornelius, used in this small sample, occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2013-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.
The Breakdown:
There may not be a more powerful figure that has entered the BJJ competition scene in the last 10 years than Keenan Cornelius. Cornelius gained significant attention several years ago when he achieved the self-titled – now famed – accomplishment of weight class and absolute “grand slam”; a series of tournament wins in the largest events of the year. Since this accomplishment, Keenan’s stock has been on the rise.
With that in mind, Keenan’s time at black belt has been both short and dense. Cornelius has missed very few major IBJJF events; giving us a phenomenal sample to study. Contrary to just about every one of our previous study subjects, Cornelius has a very diverse portfolio of techniques that he utilizes in competition. We generally see the winningest competitors use a very short list of techniques in competition; however, Cornelius has been able to muster a winning percentage of 73% using a much more complex strategy.
In addition to a strong winning percentage, we see a positive submission percentage in our data of Cornelius as well. Keenan finished his opponents in approximately 55% of his matches, and his average match length was 7 minutes and 48 seconds – both statistics that match-up almost identically with the data we have on Rodolfo Vieira and Guilherme Mendes. What’s most interesting about all this is the difference in which Cornelius achieves these results.
To continue reading the rest of this article, please check out the November issue of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine