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Is Jiu Jitsu Growth Flat?

Is Jiu Jitsu Growth Flat?

jiu jitsu growth

As a digital marketing professional, I spend a ton of time on analytics. I evaluate trends and data to determine how well a campaign, website, piece of media, etc. might perform given the current conditions. I’m also always on the look out for the next technology or subject that will innovate the marketplace.
In doing this, I spend a lot of time looking at product or subject growth. One of the best indicators I have found for this is Google Trends. It’s a very basic tool, and available to everyone. Almost all savvy digital marketing experts use it, because it gives you a very good idea of a subject or topics popularity, and where it’s headed in the future.

Advanced metrics

During a recently product development project, we started looking at advanced metrics to evaluate the timeline for popularity of cloud software inside the manufacturing industry. Simple enough, there were a suite of proprietary tools we used to do this. At the end of the project I kept find myself asking. I wonder what jiu jitsu growth would look like if I was to run it through these same filters?
The results surprised me. Based on all of indicators, and confirmed by Google Trends, is the evidence that suggests that jiu jitsu’s growth is relatively flat. This can’t be so, right? According to social, digital, and popularity data records it is.

Not growing at all?

Jiu Jitsu really hasn’t seen a dramatic rise in popularity in the last 10 years. Although tournaments and organization may have improved, the influx of popularity and new growth simply doesn’t seem to be there. It makes sense too. When someone starts jiu jitsu, they may do it for the rest of their life, or they may quit tomorrow, who knows. Over time there will certainly be more practitioners, but that doesn’t really mean that growth is increasing. Jiu Jitsu’s growth is relatively steady.
Based on subjects of similar scope, it is my opinion that this is likely going to remain fixed. Given all of the cultural and technical innovations that have occurred over the last 10 years, jiu jitsu’s growth rate has held very flat. That leads me to believe it is likely to remain this way.
social trends

So what does that say about jiu jitsu long term?

It’s unlikely that we see some grand explosion in popularity soon. That would require a spike, and based on the environment of the last 10 years, it’s hard to imagine something significant coming along and changing that. That’s not to say that the jiu jitsu population may grow; leading to greater innovation of services, tournaments, and practitioners, but it’s unlikely to see the mainstream jiu jitsu growth that many are clamoring for.


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"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Lucas Lepri

It’s Science: Lucas Lepri

lucas lepri
Our latest edition of It’s Science features Lucas Lepri. The full article will be published in the next edition of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine. To see all the awesome graphics and full-data model be sure to subscribe or pick up the next issue. See all previous issues for past subjects.
Notable Study Stats:

  • 64% of his passes occurred from Half guard
  • 87% win percentage
  • 54% Submission percentage in wins
  • Scored first in 12 of 13 recorded wins in study
  • 2nd highest pass per match rate ever recorded (1.13)
  • His average match length was 7 minutes and 31 seconds
  • 43% of his submissions were chokes from the back
  • 30% of passes were knee through passes
  • Took his opponents back in 46% of wins

Abstract: All matches observed of Lucas Lepri, used in this small sample occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2011-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.
The Breakdown: Lucas Lepri is one of the most accomplished grapplers still active today. A multi-time world champion, Lepri has proven himself a staple of consistency over the years. What’s even more impressive is Lepri’s dynamic ability to win tournaments using a wide-variety of strategy’s. In 2014, the world saw Lepri demonstrate his takedown and passing prowess to perfection as Lepri toke down and passed the guard of JT Torres in the world finals. In the past, it has often been Lepri’s stellar guard work and submission propensity that has earned him the world champion moniker. Ultimately, studying Lepri is a treat; as his abilities and skills are so consistent and precise that you immediately understand why he has been so successful to this point.
The Study: When you consider the top guard passers in the game today, a Lepri’s name is often brought up. Our study found that this is most definitely based in reality. Lepri averaged 1.13 passes per match, the second highest we’ve ever recorded (#1 was Gui Mendes). Approximately 64% of his passes occurred from top half guard with the vast majority of his passing finishes being of the knee through variety. This allowed Lepri to often setup one of his dynamic submissions which was the baseball bat choke (also a Gui Mendes favorite). This submission accounted for roughly 15% of his total submissions.
Speaking of submissions, Lepri had a submission rate in matches that he won of 54%. On top of that, his total winning percentage was 87%. Lepri preferred to finish his opponents from the back; as 43% of his submission victories were chokes from the back. Lepri often used his dynamic passing abilities to setup the back take. Half of his bake takes occurred from this type of scenario. Lepri often baits his opponents into defending the guard pass so dramatically that they dictate their backs to him. Lepri makes a living capitalizing on opponent mistakes.
One of the most impressive elements of lepri’s style is his ability to win almost every matchup (i.e. playing bottom or top – in various scenarios). Lepri’s guard game is surgical. He is not as specialized as former subjects like Rafa Mendes or Cobrinha, but he is equally mathematical in his setups and execution. His top sweeping position was sit-up guard (43%), and his top sweep type was a tomonagi style sweep. Lepri is the first subject we’ve studied with a tomonagi as his highest percentage sweep.
Ultimately, Lepri may be the most well rounded competitor we have studied to date. Not just technically, but in his complete application of jiu jitsu in a tournament setting. Lepri has demonstrated the ability to win matches in a variety of ways; top, bottom, by points, by submission, etc. He is a rare model of consistency and excellence that doesn’t show any tangible signs of slowing down any time soon.
 

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"It's Science" Videos

Jiu Jitsu Science: Braulio Estima

bishopbjj shirt patches

Braulio Estima Statistics

It’s Science is back feat. the controversial Braulio Estima. To read this full artcle be sure to pick up of the upcoming issue of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine. Here’s a taste along with some of the raw data.

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Notable Study Stats:

  • 60% of passes were from spider guard or X-guard
  • 93% win percentage
  • Scored first in 13 out of 14 winning matches
  • Submitted his opponent in 50% of wins
  • Highest sweep total in any study ever conducted* (“23”; *15 matches or less) – 1.53 sweeps per match average
  • His average match length was 7 minutes and 48 seconds
  • 71% of his submissions were chokes from the back
  • Had a 23/7 “sweep/pass ratio”

Abstract: All matches observed of Braulio Estima, used in this small sample occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2011-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.
The Breakdown: There may not currently be a more controversial figure in competition jiu jitsu than, Braulio Estima. The multi-time world champion recently tested positive for DMAA, a banned substance; according to the World Anti-Doping Association, and has since been catapulted to the center of many discussions regarding jiu jitsu competition reform. It’s appropriate that someone like Estima is embroiled in this type of controversy; as he should be well recognized as one of today’s most accomplished competitors. Known for stunning technique and a sporty showmanship, Estima has a style that is completely his own.
While Estima’s style is unique, you will ultimately see some patterns in his game just like most of our other subjects. The primary difference in this is the variation in which he executes specific techniques. We recorded more positional variation in Estima than in any past studies of other competitors.
Estima had a 93% win percentage in our sample. Additionally, he scored first in 13 of 14 of those wins. He also recorded a high-mark for total sweeps among studies we have conducted of 15 matches or less (23 total). That’s an average of 1.53 sweeps per match. The highest we’ve ever recorded. You see this occurrence a lot with Braulio because he pushes the action. He’ll take an unstable sweep, come to the top position to capitalize – and with noting to take advantage of – ultimately concede the bottom position again to try his hand again.
There is a lot of spider guard and X-guard sprinkled into Estima’s notorious guard game. Approximately 60% of his sweeps and attacks came from a spider or X-guard variation. And while there are a lot of moving parts to Braulio’s bottom game, his top game is slightly less complex; something we’ve seen often among top competitors. Braulio prefers a heavy and compact style of passing; favoring a knee over or double-unders style of pass nearly 71% of the time. He recorded a measly 7 passes in the sample; however it’s important to note that Braulio beautifully uses the guard pass as an immediate transition to his opponents back. It’s common to see him use a double-unders pass to secure his opponents back.
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Top Competitor Braulio Estima
Successes Spider Guard, Back Chokes
Avoided… Standing Passes, The Mount
Top Technique 1 X-Guard Sweep
Top Technique 2 Back Take from Guard Pass
Number of Matches Observed 15
Submits Opponent 7
Wins by Points 7
Minutes of footage watched 118 minutes (avg. length = 7:48)
Scores First 13
Total Wins 14
Total Loses 1
Sweeps (Position)
De la Riva Sweeps 2
Spider Sweeps 9
Closed Guard 1
Half-Guard 3
50/50 2
X-Guard 5
Sit-up Guard 1
Sweeps (Type)
Ankle Pick sweep 1
Deep Half 1
X-Guard (or single X) style sweep 7
Tomanagi 5
Hook sweeps 1
Trips/Offbalancing 3
Sit-up and overtake opponent 2
Berimbolo 1
Collar Drag/Arm Drag 2
Total Sweeps 23
Passes (Position)
On Knees 3
Half-Guard 3
Standing 1
Passes (Type)
leg drag 1
knee over 3
leg-weave pass 2
Under the legs pass pass 1
Total Passes 7
Taking the Back
half guard (top) 3
from passing the guard 3
guard 1
Total Back-Takes 7
Submissions (Position)
Back 5
 Spider 2
Submissions (Type)
choke from back 5
leg lock 1
triangle 1
Total Subs 7
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"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Keenan Cornelius

keenan cornelius stat pic
Abstract: All matches observed of Keenan Cornelius, used in this small sample, occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2013-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.
The Breakdown:
There may not be a more powerful figure that has entered the BJJ competition scene in the last 10 years than Keenan Cornelius. Cornelius gained significant attention several years ago when he achieved the self-titled – now famed – accomplishment of weight class and absolute “grand slam”; a series of tournament wins in the largest events of the year. Since this accomplishment, Keenan’s stock has been on the rise.
With that in mind, Keenan’s time at black belt has been both short and dense. Cornelius has missed very few major IBJJF events; giving us a phenomenal sample to study. Contrary to just about every one of our previous study subjects, Cornelius has a very diverse portfolio of techniques that he utilizes in competition. We generally see the winningest competitors use a very short list of techniques in competition; however, Cornelius has been able to muster a winning percentage of 73% using a much more complex strategy.
In addition to a strong winning percentage, we see a positive submission percentage in our data of Cornelius as well. Keenan finished his opponents in approximately 55% of his matches, and his average match length was 7 minutes and 48 seconds – both statistics that match-up almost identically with the data we have on Rodolfo Vieira and Guilherme Mendes. What’s most interesting about all this is the difference in which Cornelius achieves these results.
To continue reading the rest of this article, please check out the November issue of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine

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"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Gianni Grippo

Full Article In The Next Issue Of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine

Gianni1

Notable Study Stats:
• 100% of passes were of a leg drag variety
• No sweeps or passes occurred from half-guard
• Won 80% of his matches
• Submitted his opponent in 50% of wins
• Scored first in every match he won
• His average match length was 8 minutes
• 75% of sweeps came from De La Riva or Reverse De La Riva

Abstract: All matches observed of Gianni Grippo, used in this small sample, occurred at IBJJF events, inside his weight division, and in the years 2012-2014. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data charts). Matches were selected at random based on freely available matches online – selected using a random generator from 20 total total IBJJF matches that occurred in in the study timeline. This is a limited sample – but given the estimated amount of matches in this time period – it is well above the percentage necessary to create a scientifically validated trend sampling.

The Breakdown: Gianni Grippo is the youngest competitor we have ever studied. In fact, he has been a black belt competitor for only 1 year so far. It’s a credit to his diligence as a competitor that there is actually a large enough sample to conduct a breakdown. With that in mind, Gianni already displays the characteristic we tend to see in all of our top-competitor breakdowns. Grippo has an incredibly defined tournament strategy and gameplan. This leads to a high winning percentage (80%), and a strong submission percentage (50%).

Gianni is well known for his De La Riva and reverse De La Riva guard game. It’s easy to see why this happens to be the case. This is the foundation that Grippo’s primary strategy is built around. 75% of all of his sweeps that we recorded occurred from DLR or RDLR guard, and he uses these sweeps and attacks to setup his passing and submission techniques. In fact, you could argue that the broadest approach Grippo takes is from the guard. In our study Grippo used 4 different sweeping positions and 4 different sweep-types to attack his opponent from the bottom. As the game further unfolds, Grippo becomes more and more defined in his approach. The only type of pass we recorded Gianni executing in the study was a leg drag pass. What’s more, this leg drag passing strategy led to two separate roads to the back. These roads included a back take from the pass it self, or a back take from an attempted escape once he was able to establish side-control.

Grippo’s submission game was even more defined. The only submission we recorded during the study were chokes from the back. It becomes clear upon reflection that Gianni Grippo has become an expert in walking each of his opponents into a very familiar fate. He has one of the most defined strategies of any competitor we’ve studied; and it all starts from the DLR or RDLR guard.

Taking everything into account, it is obvious that Grippo’s end-game involves the back, and he reverse engineers it from his strongest and most diversified position, open guard. The only downside to having such a defined game is that it paints a very clear picture to opponents as to what your comfort zone is. However, Gianni has seemed to understand this. Recently, in a post on his brand new blog, GianniGrippo.com, ….

Read the rest of this article in the next issue of Jiu Jitsu Style

grippo stat sheet

 

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BishopBjj News

Podcast: Tony Pacenski and Travis Stevens

Listen/Stream on Stitcher:

Our latest podcast breaks down Metamoris 4, talks JJGF with the co-founder, Tony Pacenski. We we talk about BJJ in the Olympics, BJJ sponsorship, and more w/ guest Travis Stevens (2x Judo Olympian).  It’s nearly 3 hours of awesome, unique bjj talk.

Tony Pacenski –  JJGF co-founder, BJJ black belt

Tony talks about the JJFG, how it was founded, what it was like to get to know Rickson personally, and what he has technically learned from Rickson. Tony also tells us about some of the recent confusion around the Vulkan Open rules and the JJGF. He also lays out the vision for the JJGF long term, and tells us what other organization the endeavor is modeled after. A lot of great new information about a subject that has many hopeful for the future of sport BJJ

Travis Stevens –  2x Judo Olympian, BJJ black belt

Travis discusses the main difference between sport BJJ and sport Judo, what the different communities are like, and the differences in professionalism in both sports. Travis also candidly shares his sponsorship arrangements in Judo, and compares them to what is offered in BJJ. This dovetails off a comment he also made about competing in IBJJF tournaments as well. The result is a very sobering outlook on the current state of modern BJJ, especially as it relates to the $$$ that is involved with the sport.

Listen Now:

 

 

 

 

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Interviews

Podcast #16: BishopBJJ team breaks down JJGF and more…

The crew has an all-skate and discusses everything we know about the JJGF as of right now (rumors, truths, etc.), and tries to make sense of it all. We also tell BJJ challenge stories, discuss the rules of BJJ, and what it means to be a black belt.

Have a question for the podcast crew? Submit it here.
[contact-form][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Comment’ type=’textarea’ required=’1’/][/contact-form]
 

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"It's Science" Videos

It's Science: Royler Gracie (Legends Edition)

royler its science


 By: Tyler Bishop
(stats located below)

Foreword:

Thank you for making It’s Science one of the most popular jiu jitsu pieces on the internet and inside our little community. As many of you may already know, the full length articles, stats, etc. of all our competitor profiles are featured in every issue of Jiu Jitsu Style Magazine. This particular one will be released in the upcoming issue of JJS next month.
This particular episode kicks off our new series of statistical breakdowns featuring legends of the sport. Hopefully this new series can help us further paint a picture as to how jiu jitsu is evolving, by taking a closer look at where is has come from – competitively of course. I found no place more fitting to start than with the Gracie families most decorated sport jiu jitsu competitor, Master Royler Gracie.
This piece was of particular interest to me, as I viewed Royler’s style – from the outside to be different from many modern competition approaches, and I thought that an analysis of his game would prove to be a stark contrast to many past studies. I was both right and wrong. While his game does differ from many of past profiles, the results that he achieved were surprising in light of the results. His ability to play the top and achieve success is primarily where my attention goes in this breakdown, but I don’t think we should stop at that. Royler’s game is as clearly defined as any of the others we have observed in times past. I hope you will enjoy observing the results as much as I did collecting them.


Abstract:

All matches observed of Royler Gracie used in this small sample occurred in his respective weight division between 1994 and the present day. The sampling includes a mixture of both gi and nogi competition. Only techniques, occurrences, and outcomes that were recorded are displayed in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data). Matches were selected at random based on available matches – selected using a random generator from available matches. This is a limited sample, and one without many of our normal controls such as; unified rules, time limits, etc. This makes the data a little more skewed than what we would normally like to see. However, the data collected did end up accurately representing insightful trends that we can use to draw logical and rational conclusions. As jiu jitsu grows, so does that data.


Breakdown:

Royler Gracie, his name alone bears a connection to the sport itself. As the most decorated sport jiu jitsu competitor of Helio Gracie, Royler, is known for his flexibility, mysterious pressure, and fierce competitiveness. In fact, Royler recently competed once again at the age of 48 against Eddie Bravo in a thrilling match at Metamoris. It’s hard to deny the strong competitive will Royler possess. In fact, the famous picture above almost encapsulates Roylers mystique in-of-it-self. But, what techniques, strategies, and gameplans makeup the Royler Gracie style?
Let’s begin our review of the statistics below with a breakdown of the start of the match. Royler, like many of his generation, proved to be primarily a top game player. He displays a dynamic and smothering style of passing that he has leaned on heavily throughout his career, and the best way to execute that strategy is to start on top from the start. Roylers initial takedown of choice was the ankle pick and a wrestling style double or single leg attempt. It’s fair to mention that because many of these matches occurred in ADCC that many of these takedowns could have been specifically tailored to that format, thus giving them higher incidence than if this study was of only gi competition. These techniques accounted for approximately 78% of all of his initial takedowns.
Another strategy often used to arrive at the top position was a basic sacrifice throw in which he would drop his opponent down quickly into a butterfly style sweep in an attempt to gain the top position. Even if the throw did not work initially, Royler’s butterfly guard proved to be one of his “go to” assets on bottom. His flexibility, combined with his mastery of the technique, allowed him to secure quite a few sweeps from this position. In fact, nearly 42% of the sweeps we observed in the study were from butterfly guard. The nest most common position that he would sweep from was a simple collar sleeve open guard variation (best way to define it) – in which Royler would use butterfly hooks and scissor style sweeps to overtake his opponent. This style of play accounted for approximately 25% of his sweeping positions.
Once on top, there is a reason why many in the jiu jitsu community still refer to the knee through style of pass as the Royler Pass. Of all the competitors we studied, none averaged a higher pass rate than Royler Gracie. Royler passed the guard on average 1.6 times per match. Our next closest competitor was Gui Mendes with 0.78. Royler passed the guard more than twice as much as many of the modern competitors we have recently studied.
Royler’s guard pass of choice was  his signature knee through (or knee cut) style pass. 11 of the 24 guard passes we observed in the entire study were classified in this style (45.8%). However, Royler also utilized leg drag, torrendo, and reverse sitting half guard style passes with a high degree of success as well. Royler executed the majority of these passing sequences from his knees or from the half guard – which is very much juxtaposition from where we have seen it with the majority of the other competitors we have studied. In fact, no other competitor had the majority of their passes start from a kneeling position.
Royler recorded 88% of the submissions we observed from either the back or mount position. 50% of the submissions were chokes from the back while armbars and collar chokes made up the rest. 53% of the matches we observed ended with Royler finishing his opponent by submission.
In the matches we observed he was victorious in 13 of them. He has shown the type of spirit throughout the course of his career that you would expect from a decorated legend like himself. However, the numbers do reveal something very interesting. The dynamics of his style are unique qualities that – in many cases – we have yet to see replicated by any other competitor. In his last match against Eddie Bravo you could still see architecture of his proprietary game. And, while it’s likely we have seen the last of Royler Gracie in the competitive jiu jitsu world, it’s likely there is still a lot we can learn from the matches and legacy he has left behind. This is only a start.


Notable Stats

  • Highest average pass rate per match of any competitor studied so far (1.6 per match)
    • Passed the guard twice as much as the next closest in this category (Gui Mendes)
  • 88% of submissions came from the back or mount
  • Knee through style of pass was used to pass in 46.8% of successful attempts
  • 1/2 of total submissions he secured were chokes from the back
  • Scored first points (when applicable) in every single victory
  • 45% successful passes started from opponents half guard

royler stats graphic

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"It's Science" Videos

Jiu Jitsu Submissions Reference Chart

By: Tyler Bishop
One of the reasons BishopBjj.com exists today in it’s current form is to bring some structure to the internal debates about jiu jitsu competition. Recently, the discussion around jiu jitsu competition formats has reached an apex. What is the truest form of jiu jitsu? Which type of format is most exciting? What rules should be applied?
All of this talk is healthy for the sport to grow and evolve. However, one of the biggest problems people fail to bring into the conversation is empirical data.  Jiu jitsu was built on the scientific principle of testing a hypothesis. If you think a move works, why not try it against a resisting opponent? Collect the data and try again. This is the foundation of science. Unfortunately, often the arguments that we are hearing around the rules and tournament formats are based in personal perception, not reality.
It’s not easy to compile data on jiu jitsu competition, nor is there much available outside of what our site has produced. Therefore these arguments are hard to be won on facts alone, so there will always be a level of personal bias inflicted upon these discussions until that changes. But I encourage everyone involved in these debates to continue to ask the tough questions, and always ask for proof. Below is a chart that highlights several major events and their submission history in the last 2 years. It is far from a study like we have done in the past, but it’s some basic info that I encourage you to share so that we all can at least have this as a starting point in these discussions.
Jiu Jitsu is deepy personal and we all enjoy it. We all want the best for the sport-side of things, that’s why everyone has a strong opinion about it.  As long as there is a demand to know the facts we will continue to work on providing it. #jiujitsuscience
jiu jitsu sub breakdown
 

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BishopBjj News

Tyler and Jena Bishop on Open Mat Radio Podcast

 
oprCheckout Tyler and Jena on the Open Mat radio podcast! They discuss their jiu jitsu, backgrounds, womens  jiu jitsu, their recent experience in Abu Dhabi, and drug-use in jiu jitsu among other things. The interview dives into a host of jiu jitsu issues. Open Mat radio is one of the highest quality shows on the market. We highly recommend supporting the show.
http://www.openmatradio.com/2014/04/27/episode-100-tyler-and-jena-bishop-of-bishopbjj-com/